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    农民工与城市化
      时间:2010-2-2      来源:经济观察报    编辑:admin【字体: 】【收藏】【关闭
      

            我们最近在国内做了几次非常详细的调查,包括对农民工的调查。我希望通过我们做的调查得到的一些微观数据来讨论一下关于我们中国宏观的问题。

            在中国对农民工的调查基本上全是社会学家做的,好像经济学家对这个题目不是特别感兴趣。从传统上来讲,农民工的问题被认为是一个社会问题,权益保障的问题。在我看来,实际上中国农民工现象的出现对中国宏观经济有极大的影响。中国统计局在2008年底做的统计显示,中国现在有2.3亿的农民工。我们通过调查表明,中国农民工对中国的产出起着巨大的作用,但是他们的消费增长速度却非常慢。如果要讨论中国经济结构的失衡,农民工的经济状况在此起了非常关键的作用。

            宏观经济学家对中国内需不足有两个解释:一个是强调中国的储蓄率,另一个是强调中国的发展。

            提到农民工就会牵扯到城市化。如果看中国城市化指标就会发现,2000年是一个拐点,而恰恰是2000年,也是另外一个拐点,也就是中国家庭消费占GDP的比例一直在下降。这个非常有意思。我们一般会认为城市化带来的是中产阶级壮大,带来的是收入的增长,带来的是消费的增加。但是从中国宏观城市化的数据和宏观消费数据看到的状况恰恰是相反的。我会对这个问题作详细的解释。

            世界上曾经有这样一个国家,这个国家有下列特征:政府储备率在6年之内增加了一倍,基尼系数是4.5,工资增长严重落后于生产率的增长,大企业里75%的资产是国企,政治上是没有竞争的,对外资非?,非;队。这是哪个国家?GDP增长速度是多少?

            是中国吗?不是。这是上世纪60年代的巴西,1968-1974年巴西的GDP增长每年11.4%,但整个1980年代是停滞不前,即所谓丢失的十年。像巴西这种国家,1950年代的时候人均GDP就相当于我们的台湾省、韩国的两倍,到现在大概连三分之一都不到,1990年代有多次金融;晃榷,经济发展速度放慢,政治上也不稳定。巴西在上世纪60年代,有些方面和中国是相当相似的。而且巴西当时被外资看好,被认为是“经济奇!。这些用词今天都被用于中国。中国经济最大挑战是消费和内需的下降。

            很多人认为中国的消费占GDP的比例低是因为我们东亚文化强调储蓄,韩国和日本这两个国家也是东亚,也是有东亚文化的,它们的消费占GDP的比例远远比我们中国高。虽然今年消费官方数据很好,社会零售增加了15%,远远超过GDP的增长。但是中国的统计数据是很复杂的,中国的社会零售一部分是家庭消费,一部分是机构消费。在这方面我找不到特别好的数字,所以我自己去查中国统计局的关于农民和城镇居民的收支调查,用它的收支调查数据跟官方的比例做比较;瓜巡畈欢嗍钦隽闶巯训25%,而在1980年代为10%,到了1990年代,机构消费占整个零售消费大大增加。

            我自己很怀疑15%里边有多少真正是家庭消费。从过去历史的数据来看,机构消费在整个消费中占的比例非常大。再解释中国消费下降的问题,一种理论认为,是谨慎性的储蓄和社会保险不足造成的;另外一种理论认为,谨慎型的消费主要是因为收入过低,而不是因为储蓄过高。我自己比较赞成第二种观点,也就是说中国消费下降是因为中国国民收入的增长严重落后于GDP的增长。很多其他第三世界国家,消费比例都比中国要高15%-20%左右。那些第三世界并不是有很发达的社会保险体制——印度没有一个特别好的社会保险机制,但是消费占GDP的比例却相当高。

            这是国际货币基金组织(IMF)的两份报告,第一个报告认为储蓄过高,他们展现的数据表明中国城镇储蓄从15%上升到2005年的23%。另外一份IMF报告认为,即使你考虑到储蓄率上升的话,也只能解释消费下降8%其中的1%。也就是即使考虑这个也不能全面解释消费的下降。

            第一份IMF报告对储蓄的算法里头有一些稍微复杂的问题。它的算法是储蓄等于可支配收入减去消费支出。如果你要看美国国民核算统计数据,是个人储蓄等于个人收入减去个人支出,“个人支出=个人消费支出+个人利息支付+个人转移支出”。IMF采纳了对消费非常窄的定义,如果不采取这个定义,采取美国定义的话,可能会得出另外一个结论。

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