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    上半年21区域发展指数:西部排名最高东北最低
      中国城市文化网  时间:2017-8-29    www.szwangqi.com  来源:21世纪经济报道    收藏本页

    21世纪经济研究院研究发现,今年上半年21区域发展指数最高的是西部地区,为7.75%,其次是中部、东部,东北最低。西部地区区域发展指数比较高,前十名中有六名为西部地区。很多经济增速较高的地区今年指数较低,这些地区需要加快转型。

    上半年区域经济哪里最好?

    21世纪经济研究院研究发现,今年上半年21区域发展指数最高的是西部地区,为7.75%,其次是中部、东部,东北最低。

    21区域发展指数采用规模以上工业增速、投资增速、社会消费品零售额增速、一般公共预算收入增速、第三产业增速等来测算各地的经济走势,其权重分别占20%、10%、20%、20%、30%。第三产业之所以权重最大,是因为全国服务业比重已超过50%。

    总体而言,今年上半年西部地区区域发展指数比较高,前十名中有六名为西部地区,包括西藏、新疆、贵州、云南、宁夏、陕西,指数均为8%以上。中部的湖北,东部的广东、河北分别位居上半年21区域发展指数的全国第八、第九、第十位。排名靠后的地方有青海、天津、吉林、甘肃、辽宁等地。

    很多经济增速较高的地区反而指数较低,显示这些地区需要加快转型,避免陷入经济驱动力过于单一的局面。

    前十名多半是西部地区

    测算发现,今年上半年21区域发展指数最高的是西部,平均值为7.75%;其次为中部,指数为7.18%;东部为6.33%;东北最低,为2.08%。

    上半年21区域发展指数第一、二、三名是西藏、新疆和贵州,指数分别为17.68%、11.97%、8.43%,均位于中国的西南或西北地区(西藏第二和第三产业数据尚未公布,本报告均采取10%的保守预估数据)。西部还有云南、宁夏、陕西指数分别位列第五、六、七名。

    需要注意的是,今年上半年21区域发展指数排名靠前的地区均是西部边远地区,比如西藏、新疆、贵州、云南、宁夏等地。这些地区人均GDP(地区生产总值)和居民可支配收入均在全国不高,属于欠发达地区。在东部地区快速转型的情况下,西部边远地区能承接更多的沿海地区产业,实现跨越式发展。很多地区由于经济总量低,往往上一两个项目就可以快速拉动经济增长。

    西藏的一般公共预算收入、规模以上工业增速、社会消费品零售额增速三项指标排第一。新疆今年上半年投资增速为24.6%,为全国第一,是全国增速的约3倍。

    新疆上半年一般公共预算收入增速为34.5%,出口增速为42.8%(人民币计算),分别位居全国第二、第四。今年上半年新疆经济增速为7.2%,排名为十五名以后,但是上述原因使得新疆的21区域发展指数排名第二。

    贵州上半年规模以上工业增速第三、投资增速第二,第三产业增速和社会消费品零售额增速第二,导致其21区域发展指数第三。云南今年上半年一般预算收入增速第四、投资增速增速第四、社会消费品零售额增速第四,使得其21区域发展指数排第五。

    海南今年上半年经济增速并不高,只有7.5%,但是区域发展指数排名靠前,与多项数据较高有关。比如上半年海南一般预算收入增速为19.2%,为全国第三。

    也有的地方经济发展快,但是指数并不高。比如重庆上半年经济增速为10.5%,全国第二,但是21区域发展指数只是全国第17位,原因是一般公共预算收入增速为7.1%,影响了总排名。

    中部地区除了湖南以外,其余地区上半年21区域发展指数均为7%以上。湖南今年上半年21区域发展指数为全国第21位,与一般公共预算收入只有5.7%有关。

    东部地区的区域发展指数分化大,有4个省高于7%,为福建、广东、海南、河北。但是也有比较低的,比如天津低于4%。东北部地区上半年发展指数均低于6%,这表明3年多来东北振兴仍待取得实质性突破。

    21世纪经济研究院将21区域发展指数景气区间分为5个形态:小于0反映经济过冷,0-5%反映趋冷;5%-10%反映稳定;10%-15%为趋热;15%以上为过热。上半年全国有20多个省市自治区经济为稳定状态。

    今年上半年经济过冷的地区有甘肃和辽宁,21区域发展指数分别为-0.55%和-1.94%。两地今年上半年投资增速分别为-36.3%、-31.4%,为全国较慢的地区。两地工业增速分别为1.9%、-4.3%,也在全国较低,这与两地经济增速在全国排名靠后的情况一致。

    吉林、天津、青海、江苏上半年21区域发展指数低于5%。吉林和天津今年上半年一般公共预算收入增速分别为-0.9%、3.7%,在全国倒数第一、第四。天津曾经济增速为全国第一,今年上半年投资和工业减速明显。

    资源大省需加快转型

    从今年上半年区域发展指数看,资源大省表现抢眼,这些地区需要加快转型。

    21区域发展指数第二到第七名之间的新疆、贵州、云南、宁夏、陕西,均是能源大省,传统煤炭、水电产业等比重较大。

    在传统的资源大省中,山西、内蒙古未能进入前十名。山西今年上半年21区域发展指数为全国第11位,达到7.53%。山西经济增速为6.9%,多年来首次追平全国经济增速。内蒙古因为要解决环保问题,煤炭调出受限,经济获益不大,今年上半年区域发展指数为5.27%,在全国靠后。不过,新疆、山西今年上半年社会消费品零售总额增速分别为7%、6.6%,在全国为倒数前几名,表明这两个地区经济活力仍待提升。

    资源大省今年上半年经济良好,与今年煤炭、钢铁等价格上升快有关。另外,全国加快解决可再生能源的弃风弃水弃光问题,很多地区电力加快外送,从中受益很大,云南、宁夏均是代表。

    成也萧何,败也萧何。今日资源大省可能受益于资源价格上升,明日可能因为煤炭价格下跌拖累经济。国家今年公布煤电供给侧结构性改革的意见,提出“十三五”煤电要压减1.5亿千瓦的产能,相应未来煤炭需求可能会下降。在煤炭价格下跌后,这些地区经济可能再面临新的结构调整,因此这些地区仍需寻找新的经济动力。

    很多重化工业比重较大的地区,包括东北三省以及甘肃、天津、江苏,也应该加快转型。这些地区今年上半年21区域发展指数在全国靠后。

    天津和江苏过去多年经济增速较快,今年上半年两地第二产业增速分别为5.4%、6.3%,服务业增速均为8.3%,工业拖了经济后腿(分别为5.6%、5.5%,工业占第二产业大头)。

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